Showing posts with label MDG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MDG. Show all posts

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Gallup on energy: Nigeria's relative development

Source
Gallup surveyed 1,000 people in 20 African countries about where they get their primary source of power and their life satisfaction.
When asked to evaluate their lives using the Cantril Self-Anchoring Striving Scale, those who say their main source of lighting comes from power lines rate their present lives more than 0.5 points higher on a scale from 0 to 10 than those who rely on fuel lamps or other sources. These results still hold even after statistically controlling for household income. On-grid sub-Saharan Africans also rate their future lives a full point higher than those who mainly rely on fuel lamps and more than half a point higher than those who use other sources of home lighting. ...
Virtually everyone in Mauritius, an island nation in the Indian Ocean, says their main source of lighting is a power line. Majorities in Cameroon, Ghana, South Africa [what? really? wow /sarc], Nigeria, and Zimbabwe also report relying on power lines. At the other end of the spectrum, 10% or less in Mali, Central African Republic, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Liberia say the same.
Roughly 2/3 of Nigerians report relying on the power grid. In the median African country, less than one-fourth can even make that claim.
Gallup concludes:
The Gallup results suggest electricity access is a necessary pillar for the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals in the region. From improved food storage to better health, the benefits of power access are far reaching. As such, reliable and affordable power can give Africans opportunities to build prosperous economies, a key outcome of poverty alleviation across the subcontinent.
In light of my students' comments, I found this poll both timely and interesting.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Ginormous Bag o Blog Links

I was going back through my old posts to see if there were any I had drafted but never posted. This was one from September.

Easterly posts on the FAO's new hunger numbers. Skeptical with good reason: the numbers come from models and extrapolations (okay, that's fine, but let's debate the model) rather than country-by-country data gathering.

Rent-controlled housing:
In the end, the goal of the rent control laws is thwarted (the low rents are enjoyed by well-paid tenured faculty rather than the needy), the income tax laws are thwarted (a sizable part of compensation is untaxed), and all this is done by a nonprofit institution (the university) whose ostensible purpose is to serve the public interest.
Roberts unpacks Krugman's argument and finds plenty to blame on government in the current recession:
In fact, if there had been one category called “Taxes and Government Regulations” it might have been seen as the biggest problem, listed by 36% of respondents, up from 29% in the year before and surpassing sales as the biggest problem. ...

So when the stimulus was put in place, 28% of small businesses cited sales as their biggest problem. A year into the stimulus, somehow, the proportion citing sales had climbed to 31%. And today, 18 months or so into the stimulus, the number is still 31%. So somehow, during the first part of the stimulus, during all that government spending,  a greater proportion of small businesses found sales to be to their biggest problem. But the sum of taxes and government regulations went from 30% to 36%.
 First past the post vs. last past: parenting incentives.

M. Nestle on replacing "high fructose corn syrup" with "corn sugars":
I would prefer Corn Sugars (plural) to indicate that it is a mixture of glucose and fructose.  But as long as they don’t call it “natural,” the change is OK with me.
And she links to this comment:
Only Big Food would find a way to make a product full of refined white sugar (which at one time was also demonized) seem like a healthy alternative. It’s like I always say, the food industry is very good at taking criticism and turning it into a marketing opportunity.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Big Bag of African Politics

In addition to the US midterm elections, a number of African countries are holding their own elections. An eye-witness account of peaceful goings on in Zanzibar.

Ethiopia and the UK both deny the implications of a recent Human Rights Watch report. Based on interviews with 200 people, they find that people are denied food aid, agricultural subsidies, university slots, and other government programs if they are not members of the ruling party.

Freschi reviews the review of a new book on Ethiopia's mid-1980s famine. The conclusion: totally man-made - "the direct and in all likelihood inevitable result of deliberate policies in Addis Ababa by the Stalinist government of Mengistu Haile Mariam." The post also includes this delightful picture of Ethiopia, land "where nothing ever grows/ no rain nor rivers flow."

Mauritius has accomplished most of the MDGs, an underappreciated achievement. But part of being a developmentalist is never believing amazing progress is actually progress: "Charan is worried the government will use the positive MDG figures as an excuse to ignore other social problems"

The Economist discusses Kenya's growing importance economically and politically in Africa, designs on South Sudan, and the various factions. While that piece is only cautiously optimistic, Zutt believes that Kenya's new (August 2010) constitution will do a lot of good:
It subjects the presidency to more checks and balances.  It strengthens parliamentary oversight of the executive.  It devolves power to 47 elected county governments, introducing for the first time in Kenya a meaningful decentralization.  It protects the rights of citizens, and particularly women and vulnerable groups, through an ambitious bill of rights.  It requires all sitting judges to be vetted to determine their eligibility to continue to serve.
Only 1/5 of the projects undertaken by foreign governments to grow food in Africa (aka land-grabbing) have actually started growing food and even where they have, yields have been 1/4 of expectations. Despite this, more businesses are also beginning to look at increasing African agricultural production.

Africa is a Country points out that the average age of African leaders is 76, while the average age in OECD countries is 51. Penn  notes
I am not sure what to take away from this: whether this is a representative sample, then we’re talking about different kinds of political systems (with rules about term limits or the extent of pressure from civil society groups), different ideas about the links between age and experience, various types of regimes (including life presidents and dictators for the African countries cited), and, finally,  it is not like having younger leaders have led to better policies (whether social, economic or political) in the ‘First World.’
CGD encourages the inclusion of Nigeria in the G-20 because of its large population size. The Economist is bullish on African economic growth, predicting a number of countries with more than 5% GDP growth in 2010 and 2011.

In response to the debate about how to evaluate the progress of the Millennium Villages, Blattman proposes a different baseline comparison: the Institutions and Accountability package. The increased attention caused by the MV project gets national and state governments working ... in those areas. States learn by doing and get better at delivering their public goods to everyone.
By this argument, the kind of research we need to get built around the Millennium Villages are process consultants (to learn how to deliver services better) or people who think about how policy and institutional change actually happens, so the lessons and examples can spread beyong the example villages. We also need lots of close observation so that we can see why some interventions work well together, and why some don’t.
These questions are beyond and in addition to the questions of positive externalities, whether there are results in economic levels or economic growth, and how rigorously we can identify the causal effets.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Obama on Development

Easterly and Pritchett are quite positive. Easterly just embraces a fellow aid "skeptic." Pritchett is a bit more detailed:
First, the speech and policy put economic growth front and center as objectives of development and development policy.  It might seem obvious that economic growth that increases people’s command over resources is the single most powerful force to improve nearly any indicator of well-being–from poverty to food security to health to education–but, surprisingly, that point can get lost.  The “development is about more than growth” backlash, which had important elements of truth, easily got carried away into “development isn’t at all about growth” and it is good to see economic growth back front and center of development objectives. ...

Second, the speech came down hard, and right, on the debate between improving systemic capability and programmatic action.  This was of course not easy to do in the context of a speech on the MDGs, which lend themselves to a programmatic vision of development.  ... The speech clearly identified building this capability as a central (and difficult) part of development.... The MDGs are correctly interpreted as what will be accomplished when there has been development–not vice versa.

Third, the speech gets right the need for innovation, with rigorous evaluation as an important component of an environment for innovation.  ...

Fourth, one thing the speech gets right it does so by omission.  There is no dollar figure.  ... “Let’s do better at what we are doing”–that is a tough internal sell, but one that is useful–including I believe to people who are actually on the ground, doing the work. ...
Barder usefully adds:
A more novel feature of the new US policy is the emphasis on investing in systems and institutions, for service delivery, public administration, and other government functions, and the importance of country ownership.  This is new for the US.  ...
What is striking about this narrative is the emphasis it puts on transparency and accountability as ways to make institutions work better.  President Obama set out the argument in his General Assembly speech the following day:
The arc of human progress has been shaped by individuals with the freedom to assemble and by organizations outside of government that insisted upon democratic change and by free media that held the powerful accountable. ... [emphasis added]
One CGD blog points out, however, that most of the work he highlights is to be done by others. Given the large gaps still in USAID officials Obama has not nominated, that's a fair critique. And you can bet that if Easterly is happy, Sachs must be "puzzled" at the President's speech. Another CGD blog credits most of the good things Obama spoke about to Bush who said them and did them.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Successes: Good news on MDGs

The CGD wonders what would happen if we actually focused on good news instead of disaster.  What good news, you ask? Try out this:

CGD reports that "since 1990 Mali has more than quadrupled the percentage of kids finishing school, Ethiopia’s maternal mortality rate has plunged by 40 percent, and the ratio of Burkinabe with access to safe water has more than doubled to 72 percent".

Roving Bandit cheers Samaliland's development: "not content with democratic elections and biometric passports, [Somalilan]d is also likely to become the first nation to become a cashless society, due to expansion in mobile money transfers and retail payments."

Africa Can... celebrates progress made in Kenya and "the related much broader findings of the new book Emerging Africa: How 17 Countries Are Leading the Way by Steven Radelet, who demonstrates that the experiences of sub-Saharan African countries have been diverse and that many countries in the region have experienced steady economic growth, improved governance, and decreased poverty since the mid-1990s."

And Save the Children [HT: PNB] shows us that any amount of good news, however good, can still be manipulated into looking really bad: "Cambodia has seen a 32 percent drop in child mortality figures among the country’s "richest 20 percent", but only an 18 percent reduction in child mortality among the "poorest 20 percent"."  Only 18 percent? Happy day! 18 percent reductions are great news.

They are happier with
Indonesia, the region’s giant where 16 percent of its 225 million people live below the poverty line, [which] has recorded "equitable progress," noted the 37-page report. The poorest 20 percent has seen child mortality figures drop by 29 percent, while the richest 20 percent has witnessed a nine percent decline. ... Singapore, has been singled out in a study by ‘The Lancet’, a British medical journal, as leading all countries in the world in child mortality rates, having reduced it by 75 percent since 1990.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Speaking of country rankings

Easterly:
The HDI has a hidden implication pointed out by the World Bank’s Martin Ravallion as long ago as 1997. Imagine the reaction to this hidden implication if they publicly announced it:
The UNDP announced today that they consider a human life in the USA to be 70 times more valuable than human life in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The other consequence of this hidden implication is that rich countries will get A LOT of credit for higher life expectancy (and not much for income). Scandinavia does very well on the HDI because its life expectancy is higher by 1 or 2 years than the US, even though US income is higher. Bryan Caplan suggests:
Scandinavia comes out on top according to the HDI because the HDI is basically a measure of how Scandinavian your country is. 
There’s an alternative to constructing murky indexes with dubious assumptions. This would be to be use people’s actual choices to infer which places are better. ... Instead of the US News convoluted rankings, why not just ask a student admitted to both Texas Tech and Harvard which one they would pick (or DID pick).  These are called “revealed preference rankings” and have actually been done for colleges.
Instead of Human Development Indexes, why not just ask migrants where they would choose to live (or do actually choose to live): US or Iceland? Iceland has a much higher HDI, but actually has out-migration, whereas I think there are a few people trying pretty hard to get into the US.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Big Bag o International Blog Links

Stuff I missed on vacation:

Good news: we're back under 1 billion hungry people. For the most part, nothing looks changed: more hungry people in Asia than anywhere else, higher percentages in Africa. However,
Progress varies widely at country level. As of 2005-2007 (the most recent period for which complete data was available), the Congo, Ghana, Mali and Nigeria had already achieved MDG 1 in sub-Saharan Africa, and Ethiopia and others are close to achieving it. However, the proportion of undernourished rose to 69 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Maybe. If we were ever over 1 billion to begin with. Easterly posts on the FAO's new hunger numbers. Skeptical with good reason: the numbers come from models and extrapolations (okay, that's fine, but let's debate the model) rather than country-by-country data gathering, as seen by the FAO's own report (above) that only tells us about results from before the food price crisis.

Update: FAO responds ... the same way I did. No, they aren't wild guesses, we have a methodology and if you'd like to debate the methodology, come on over and show us what you're made of. ... They're more polite than that.

"Mongolians are voting with their wombs." - Good times ahead?

A number of bloggers have wondered why America is paying so little attention to Pakistan. I shared my favorite of their snarky reasons ("not a good tourist destination" and "flooding is sooo 2004") with my father and he came up with another good one: When an earthquake hits Haiti, Californians say, "There but for the grace of God go I" and open their wallets. Here is Pakistan's US ambassador lamenting American ignorance of their plight and praising the LDS Church for their generous humanitarian assistance and for being among the first on the ground as they worked through other agencies that have a presence in the area.

Beckworth on Japanese devaluation and the possibility of an exchange rate war.

India asks the UK for no more aid, partly for its own image, partly in advance of the changes at DfID:
Welcome to the paradox of aid to India. On the one hand, the World Bank still classifies India as a “lower middle income” country. With a per capita GNI hovering around $1000, it is home to one-third of the world’s poor, and 75 percent of its population lives on less that $2 per day.
On the other hand, India is the world’s 11th largest economy. It has a space program, a nuclear weapons program, and it is projected to grow by 9 percent this year and 8 percent the next.
Corruption in Sweden: the deck is stacked.

Measuring political will in Britain:
Where Blair, Brown, Benn and the rest pushed [African development] firmly into the limelight in 2005, Nick Clegg (acting leader of the Government in David Cameron’s absence) didn’t deign to attend.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

When Kindergarten is good for your health

From Poverty News Blog:
Enrolling in Gantauda kindergarten, Guinea-Bissau’s only pre-school centre, not only increases the chances of the children going on to primary school, but critically also provides a level of basic nutrition and health care ... The Gantauda programme provides lunch for the children, has clean latrines on-site, and will soon have a healthcare centre. It also hones children’s motor skills, encourages joint learning and establishes reading and writing techniques....

Friday, August 6, 2010

MDGs

Todd Moss at CGD believes the MDGs are:
  1. Great at raising money.
  2. Inappropriate as national goals (India and Mauritania with the same objectives and targets?)
  3. Mislabeling many high-performers as losers (Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Liberia, and others are improving strongly, but are still considered way “off track”). This only feeds aid skeptics and undermines reformers.
  4. Wrong to claim collective accountability; when everyone is responsible then no one is.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

USAID

We're 18 months into the administration and among the things that have been put on the back burner (something has to be, after all) is development. CGD worries that USAID has a director ... and all other appointments are still empty.

Also 18 months into the administration, USAID has announced its grand strategic plan (which will be difficult to carry out without its leadership) to accomplish the MDGs ... with 5 years left. Freschi over at Aid Watch is confused:
But a curious feature of the new US strategy is its failure to mention the goals by name, or to strategize progress specifically towards any of the agreed-on indicators. From the critics’ point of view, this is certainly better than the UN Millennium Project’s strategy, which created a 449-step comprehensive strategy to reach the 8 goals and 18 targets. But with no concreteness on goals or indicators at all, one wonders what exactly was the point of the new US strategy
She wonders if this is nothing more than PR: Could it b that "... the MDGs are a politically costless way for any given aid donor to create a positive image of benevolence towards the world’s poor, which is sadly unrelated to whether the goals are actually achieved?"

Aid Thoughts has a different take that could readily be worked up into a proper game theory model. The USAID announcement acts as if we were the only donor out there. After discussing why the conslidation of donor groups is unpopular with national governments and their electorates and why coordination is scarcely more popular, we get this delightful comparison to Monty Python's Life of Brian:
By announcing “this is what we are going to do regardless of what anyone else is doing,” USAID might be allowing more flexible, more thoughtful donors to pursue complementary strategies. In essence, by declaring openly that they are going to kidnap Pilate’s wife [You can watch the scene here (fast-forward to 5:00)], they nudge other groups to focus their efforts elsewhere. Let’s hope they respond to that nudge.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Successes: Ghana's Community-Based Rural Development Project

Ghana's Community-Based Rural Development Project has been in place for six years now with a specific mandate to work on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It was set up as part of Ghana's Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP). What has it done?
  • Build infrastructure: "With the construction of five dams, one dugout, 188 feeder roads [1125 km], 20 market structures and 12 slaughterhouses in rural communities across the country, many otherwise disillusioned rural folk can now make something meaningful out of life. ... on-going projects on two wind pumps, eight dams, two dugouts, irrigation facilities, 214 feeder roads, 45 market structures and 15 slaughterhouses, which are expected to bridge the urban-rural development gap." "Most of these are now about 70 percent complete" with another 100km of roads being procured. "Roads that used to be impassable for an average of 173 days now have the duration reduced to 14 days. Communities that had access to only three vehicles on market days now see up to ten vehicles after the roads were improved." "The Construction of slaughterhouses has also provided hygienic and sanitary environment for handling and storage of meat, thus promoting good healthy conditions for the people."
  • Capacity building in local government: "provided training for all 138 district assemblies and 454 selected district councils in decentralisation policy and regulations, procurement, financial management, planning, and monitoring and evaluation. ... Also, the entire accounting system for the district assemblies has been reformed"
  • Capacity building in private sector: "1,606 trainees have acquired various valuable vocational skills from the Learning Centres found in various parts of the country. Out of these, 1,209 beneficiaries have been given funds to start their own businesses. Nine hundred and fifty-seven (950) of them have actually set up and are doing very well. ... This has resulted in increased employment opportunities with increased income levels and rural livelihood as a whole."
More info here and here. So how are we measuring success?

1 - Not by inputs. Wonderful. Huzzah.
2 - Not by economic growth, poverty reduction, employment, or any of the MDG yardsticks, though there is some attention to increased incomes as a result.
3 - Output of "intermediary" inputs to development.
4 - Not by efficiency of the production of "intermediary" inputs.

The good thing about this is that they are measuring the direct outputs which are readily measurable and accountable. We built these countable roads; we trained these countable people; we gave finance to these countable businesses. It's clear. It's transparent. It's readily measurable and people can verify it.

If the only thing we care about is rural economic growth, this is a problem. It may be reasonably supposed that these inputs produce economic growth, but it's not assured. Given that improved training of government workers only affects growth through improved governance and the governance-growth link is not the most robust empirical finding in the literature, proving that CBRDP has produced growth  to the satisfaction of a reasonably critical audience would be fairly difficult.

But we may care about these inputs in and of themselves. More roads may make life easier and happier even if we can't statistically provide that it produces income. Training government and business leaders can have positive impacts for years down the road. What do we mean by development?

The other issue this doesn't address is if it might have been possible to accomplish the same goals using fewer resources. Is there a private sector or non-profit organization that could have accomplished more, faster, or cheaper? That's another important question, but it shouldn't overshadow the progress that has been made.

Meanwhile, Easterly concludes that Ghana's tourist areas are well set up for the hardier traveling stock, but they probably shouldn't aim for creating another Cancun.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Brought to you by the letter M

MDGs, MVs, Migrants, and Monsters

How to make the inevitable next round of development goals more realistic, achievable, and productive.- Todd Moss of CGD says:
  1. Bottom up, not global down.
  2. Based on ambitious yet reasonably achievable expectations.
  3. Aimed, where possible, on intermediate outcomes.
  4. Considered warning markers rather than operational goals.
  5. Able to identify success
Speaking of the MDGs, the one where we have made the least progress worldwide is reducing maternal mortality. Canada and the US are trying to raise more money to focus on them maternal mortality rates at the G8 and G20 meetings in two weeks.

Of course, we all know that Africa is failing most of the MDGs. Easterly points out, however, that that is partly an artifact of the way the goals were set up: some in levels, some in percentage change, other using other criteria. The thing is, a percentage increase of something good of which you have little is much easier than rising to a set limit the farther you are from it. Similarly, reducing something bad by a given percentage is harder than reducing it by a specific amount if you have a lot of that bad thing. Nearly every goal, however, was chosen in the hardest possible way:
Had the goals been chosen at the + signs instead - reducing poverty and increasing school enrollment by a fixed percent, for instance, Africa would look like it's doing much better.
I think the MDG design was unintentional after some conversation with the original creators of the goals, who did not intend the MDGs to be applied at the regional or country levels. What is less forgivable is the aquiescence in making Africa look like a failure after the bias was clear to anyone who would bother to check. Of course, there are areas and time periods where Africa has done badly, but is that any reason to take the successes and make them look like failures?

How have the Millennium Villages been doing? The first report is in, but not many people have been commenting on it, according to Aid Watch:
The new data give a picture of encouraging results across all sectors compared to the baseline. In Mwandama, Malawi, for example, bednet use for children under five increased from 14 percent to 60 percent and malaria prevalence for all age groups fell from 19 percent to 15 percent. Maize yields increased dramatically from .8 tons per hectare to 4.5 tons per hectare. 
Note: crop increases do not necessarily imply profit increases, but given the high subsidies they're receiving, I think that's a safe bet. The question is whether incomes increase by more than the subsidies and how long lasting the increases are after the donors leave: ie - is this enough to get the farmers out of the assumed poverty trap?
Unfortunately the results are also not that useful: Three years is too short a period to know how to interpret this dramatic increase in maize yields, for example. Is this consistent with normal variation in crop yields? Was 2006 an unusually good or bad year for maize? We don’t know.
The results also don’t help us determine whether current and future resources should be shifted away from other existing or even yet-to-be invented approaches, towards the MVP template. Will those short-term gains last beyond the timeline of the project? Can the project become self-sustaining?
Again, we don’t know, in part because not enough time has passed.
Investing in migration, Michael Clemens does some quick and dirty calculations for Bangladesh:
Hussain reports that the average Bangladeshi pays about $3,150 to migrate—mostly to the Middle East—covering costs of travel, intermediaries, and so on.  A stint abroad earns the average migrant $3,690 per year, or about $11,050 total for a typical three-year spell.  Of that, about $6,850 is either remitted home or brought home as savings. ...
That’s a stunningly profitable investment.  The large, up-front cost of emigration is yielding these migrants a 117% annual return. Most of that is spent in Bangladesh. For comparison, Mark Pitt and Shahidur Khandker estimate the returns to much-vaunted microcredit for Bangladeshi men at just 11%... .
Does Bill Easterly want to eliminate aid? Vote in the comments section.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Triple Crisis Panel 1

I'm at the UNU-WIDER 25th Anniversary Conference, The Triple Crisis: Finance, Food, and Climate Change. This introductory panel sets the stage with an expert on each element of the triple crisis. Most of this was sent out on my Twitter account (derrillwat), which I normally use only sporadically.

Amar Bhattacharya (Forum on Debt and Development):
Before the crises: 96 countries were growing more than 5%, over 30 more than 3%
Developing countries have escaped recession faster on average than developed countries.
For the first time, Africa did not see decreasing GDP with global recession
Africa’s long-term growth prospects look better than Latin America
Estimates of cost to reduce climate change: 1) $9b 2) 20-80 billion 3) over 100 billion. Estimates grow as time goes by within this decade. (Translation 1: we have no clue; Translation 2: We're all going to die!)
New donors in Africa twice as important for infrastructure finance than traditional donors
World Bank cheered for extra $3 billion. Compared to private credit flows ($200-$500 billion), it's still 0

Shenggen Fan (IFPRI):
MDG on cutting hunger is not on track, but is still achievable
but only if we drop 69 million hungry people per year
Ethiopia, Chad, and Dem Rep of Congo the most alarming countries for hunger
Finance affects food security largely through capital flows
Climate change affects food security largely through changes in production
IFPRI has a new map of effects of #climatechange on #maize yield worldwide. Mostly bad in Africa, good in some of Asia & Latin America
1 - Improve smallholder productivity and access to markets (esp. inputs, extension services)
In 6/7 African and Asian countries, investments in Agriculture had highest returns. [See also Cases 9-1 and 9-2 for our upcoming food policy book]
2 - Scale up safety nets: conditional cash transfers, maternal and child nutrition, public works, insurance for the poor
3 - Keep trade open and reduce market volatility (national and regional food stocks)
4 - climate change adaptation and mitigation investment (ag research, irrigation)
5 - new partners (BRIC), more use of private sector and private charities

Jomo KS: UN Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development
Markets alone won't solve climate change. Not that it has no role - the role is complementary rather than fundamental. This is a difference between UN and World Bank views.
Public investment to crowd in private investment on sustainable technology
Need a lot more emphasis on adaptation, particularly in developing countries.
References Clinton's mea culpa on Haiti trade as evidence that trade led to food crisis. Look for my upcoming case study debunking this.
cheap credit led to over-investment. With the current recession, this causes underutilized capacity, making the private sector reluctant to invest. Hence, we need cross-subsidized public investments to crowd the private sector in.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Less Pollution Than Advertised: Five Second Lomborg

One of the difficulties in aid and advocacy is that you just can't go sharing good news. Cheerful advocates don't get big money. (Maybe that's why dismal scientists do so much developmental work.) For Earth Day, Lomborg came out with some positively beaming environmental news to help keep the man-made gloom in perspective:
In virtually every developed country, the air is more breathable and the water is more drinkable than it was in 1970. In most of the First World, deforestation has turned to reforestation. Moreover, the percentage of malnutrition has been reduced, and ever-more people have access to clean water and sanitation. ...

One of the "core issues" that the organizers of this year's Earth Day say we should be worrying about is the use of fertilizers and pesticides. It may be unfashionable to point this out, but without the  high-yield agricultural practices developed over the past 60 years, virtually all the forests of the world would have to have been cleared to make way for food production. And starvation would be much, much more prevalent. ...

What about indoor air pollution, which happens to be the world's No. 1 environmental killer? In poor countries, 2.5 billion people rely on "biomass" — wood, waste and dung — to cook and keep themselves warm. This year, the resulting pollution will kill about 1.3 million of them, mainly women and children. Switching from biomass to fossil fuels would dramatically improve the lives of more than a third of the world's population. ...

I'm not saying we can blithely ignore global warming. Man-made climate change is real, and we do need to do something about it.... we should focus on the many more immediate problems faced by the developing world today — problems such as malnutrition, education, disease and clean drinking water. At the same time, we should take meaningful steps to ensure that the future of the developing world will be powered by green energy. As long as the electricity from sustainable sources such as solar panels costs us 10 times as much as electricity generated by coal-fired generators, no one but rich nations will go green (and then only if there are government subsidies). What we need to do is to promote the kind of technological breakthroughs necessary to make solar panels cheaper than fossil fuels. Once we have done that, no one will have to be ordered to give up coal and oil.
Theme and variation: Discussion about the maternal mortality rate brouhaha last week from Easterly and a response indicating there was more sound and fury that significance.In short - Lancet published some numbers that said fewer mothers were dying in child rate AND that some advocacy groups had asked them not to publish that number until they could get some funding. The second half got a lot of press, but ... we're having difficulty finding the advocacy groups and there are important data concerns about the first part.

Friday, April 2, 2010

For the Next MDGs

Matt at Aid Thoughts has some good thoughts about the MDGs:
For one, the MDGs are a broad set of international goals, but they do not comprise a one-size-fits-all policy, yet we continue to treat them as comparable indicators and implicitly weight them equally (this is reinforced by the structure of the MDGs). Why should India, where less than 80 children per 1,000 die before their fifth birthday, put the same weight on halving under-five mortality as Malawi, where over 130 children suffer the same fate? What if Indonesia decides it wants to put more weight on industrial policy than agricultural policy, with the expectation that the former will do more to reduce poverty in the long run? I think policy-makers and researchers often confuse the normative aspects of the MDGs (what we want to achieve) with the operational side (by trying to directly target each of the things we want to happen). ...

Several months ago, I suggested that the next set of MDGs to be built from the ground-up, an aggregation of the goals of multiple development strategies. Instead of the international community telling developing countries what their priorities should be, then scouring planning documents to ensure adherence, the structure should grow from the opposite direction. Governments and civil societies in poor countries need to determine their own objectives for development, after which the international community should do its best to help them achieve it.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

How governance develops

Chris Blattman is pondering different reasons for the state to exist:
European and Asian states provided police, military control, and access to justice (of a sort) long before they provided schools, clinics and electricity.
Donors, however, have encouraged developing countries go the other way 'round.

To borrow a phrase from Tyler Cowen: “Views I toy with but do not (yet?) hold”:

  • State weakness in Africa may be exacerbated by attempting to graft the West’s idea of a 20th century developmental state onto structures not fully capable of providing the basic bits of law and order.
  • The international system and aid can exacerbate the problem by pushing the state to build a public education and health system ahead of more core state functions.
  • Conspicuously, there is no Millennium Development Goal for access to a court system, or freedom from crime and violence. Everyone has heard of UNICEF, few have heard of UNPOL.
  • I would bet that more donors and non-profit organizations focus on microfinance than justice, by a factor of five to ten.
Among the questions to be asked are: to what extent does it matter? If the original social contracts of the West were built around providing security to the richest and worked their way down to poorer members of society, what prevents a social contract built around providing other public goods to the richest and working their way down to poorer members of society? Is the problem that the contract is between donors and government rather than citizens? Is the problem one of capacity: if it requires more capacity to provide education and health care than police protection and property laws, the one builds into the other. Is the problem that the rich do not need the government to provide the modern public goods and so are not on board while it is harder to get the poor into the social contract? Is the problem ethnic diversity or other lack of social capital that slows any contract formation? Is there no problem - it just takes a little longer?

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Five Second ... White Man's Burden

It is easy for people to misread Easterly's views. I'm not certain why, other than that people don't read him carefully. In White Man's Burden [the Click to Look Inside link on the picture doesn't work, so click the title here to look inside], he opens by introducing that there are two problems: one is the suffering of the poor, the other is the historic inability of the West to solve the problems. In particular, despite spending $2,300,000,000,000 on foreign aid over the last 50 years, that we are still unable to get twelve cent medicines to the people who need them most. His work focuses on the second problem.

He does not in the entire book argue that we should spend less trying to help the poor. He argues that we are trying to help in ways that are largely ineffective. "I ... keep trying, not to abandon aid to the poor, but to make sure it reaches them." "Western assistance ... can still play some role in alleviating the sufferings of the poor."

He does not argue that aid can never be effective. He argues that the way we have gone about it has often been ineffective and proposes some ways to help it be more effective. He cites Botswana as an example of aid "supporting reform and good government," though detailing how abysmally it has failed to do the same elsewhere; he cites pages and pages of World Bank, WHO, and IMF programs that were successful.

He does not claim that we should give up trying to help people. He pleads that we change the question from How can I use foreign aid to solve every problem in the world to "What can foreign aid do for poor people" and then do it. "Aid agencies cannot end world poverty, but they can do many useful things to meet the desparate needs of the poor and give them new opportunities."

He does not provide a blueprint for how to solve every problem with aid. He does suggest several dimensions where significant progress could be made by experimentation in making aid more effective. They include:

Accountability and Specialization "The utopian agenda has led to collective responsibility for multiple goals for each agency, one of the worst incentive systems invented since mankind started walking upright.... Have individual accountability for individual tasks. Let aid agencies sepcialize in the sectors and countries they are best at helping. Then hold aid agencies accountable for their results by having truly independent evaluation of their efforts." "Not overall sweeping evaluations of a whole nationwide development program, but specific and continuous evaluation of particular interventions."

Feedback and Meaningful Participation from Recipients. "The needs of the rich get met because the rich give feedback to political and economic Searchers, and they can hold the Searchers accountable for following through with specific actions. The needs of the poor don't get met because the poor have little money or political power with which to make their needs known and they cannot hold anyone accountable to meet those needs." The jargon is already there, but he takes down Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers as one set of planners talking to another set of planners, often written by the recipient government at the dictation of the donors, sometimes even undermining democratic processes and selections. "Visibility gives more power to Searchers while invisibility shifts power to Planners. The problem with aid is that the poor are mostly invisible." "Participation should mean more buying and voting power in the hands of the poor in aid."

Fund Maintenance. "Aid donors should just bite the bullet and permanently fund road maintenance, textbooks, drugs for clinics, and other operating costs of development projects. Politically dysfunctional governments that don't do maintenance can concentrate on other things. ... The return on spending on instructional materials in education is up to fourteen times higher than the return on spending on physical facilities." p. 190

On Peacekeeping: "Peacekeeping could be good, but just who is willing to be accountable for its success or failure. ... Interventionism suffers from the patronizing assumption that only the West can keep the locals from killing eah other. ... Peace usually succeeds war because of a decisive victory by one side, not because of negotiated settlements by outsiders. ... UN interventions produced a stable peace only a quarter of the time. With no intervention, a stable peace resulted nearly half the time." He is overall quite negative on military interventionism.

One thing that I have admired about Easterly is that he is willing to admit that he was wrong. He does so at least twice in the book, once discussing market reform "shock therapy" and once in discussing structural adjustment. I asked him at his blog whether some of his own work fell under a criticism he had just made, and he admitted that one of the papers I mentioned fell into the same category. He promised a bit more of a response which I'm still waiting for, but there's something comforting in talking with someone you know is willing to say "I was wrong." In the book he opined that the military would be the least responsive to criticism, but on his blog has noted with surprise that the military responded the most cordially and promisingly of any group he has criticized.

One of my few criticisms is that he simultaneously calls for more observability while deriding current aid projects for overly focusing on observability without differentiating what should be observable. That is, he wants to trim down the number of goals any agency is responsible for, so it is more observable who does what, but he laments incentives that support building facilities or roads because they are more visible than textbooks or maintenance.

After presenting a fairly convincing case that Planning really doesn't work, I also noted with some irony that there was a heavy element of planning involved in the homegrown development cases he lauds at the end of the book. He acknowledges some of this, that "the success stories follow a variety of formulas," but prefers to call South Korea and Japan's actions intervening in economies rather than planning and to note that China and Singapore are "quite far from a laissez-faire model." "What we do know ... is that the West played small part in them." This leaves open a door for domestic planning to be good and foreign planning to be bad, a door I think he could do a much better job turning into a window or a peephole.

"Success attracts paternity claims." So every theory of development claims success for the various successes. When Sachs visited Cornell, for instance, he laughed at Easterly's assertion that aid hasn't done much and cited the total figure of aid given to China and India. Easterly notes that those large sums only amount to $0.001 per day for each Chinese person and $0.005 for each Indian person. Compare that to the much larger sums spent in Africa (which Sachs calls a mere $0.50 per person) and you wonder how so little could do so much while so much does so little.

Some very good 'side note' sections: The importance of social networks (p. 82-87), property rights (p. 90-99), the difficulties of making democracy work and its evolution (p. 116-129), comparing the cost effectiveness of health initiaives (HIV prevention, AIDS treatment, and others; p. 249-258). He also has some excellent snapshots of World Bank publications from the 1950s or 1980s to today, all saying the exact same thing: things are bad, but there are promising signs out there. I learned that it is much easier for me to be sanguine when reading about the colonial disasters of England, France, and Portugal than to read about the (usually CIA-backed) disasters the US sponsored (270-338).

Notable Quotables after the break:

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Scaling up Successes: Millennium Villages Edition

It's wonderful to hear about some of what goes on in the Millennium Villages, like the example in this article by Gettleman, while there are other reasons for concern about 1) dependency, paternalism, and lack of voice mentioned briefly here, 2) scalability, and 3) lack of rigorous evaluation. Gettleman discusses the latter problems in "Shower of Aid Brings Flood of Progress"
Agricultural yields have doubled; child mortality has dropped by 30 percent; school attendance has shot up and so have test scores, putting one local school second in the area, when it used to be ranked 17th; and cellphone ownership (a telltale sign of prosperity in rural Africa) has increased fourfold. ...

“I used to think, African killer bees, no way,” said Judith Onyango, one of the new honey makers. But now, she added, with visible pride, “I’m an apiarist.”...

The other day, a community health team in Sauri stooped through the doorway of a home of several sick children, said hello to Grandma and got to work. Within minutes, a health worker had pricked a child, sent a text message with the blood results by cellphone to a computer server overseen by a man named Dixon in a town about an hour away and gotten back these instructions: “Child 81665 OKOTH Patrick m/16m has MALARIA. Please provide 1 tab of Coartem (Act) twice a day for three days.”

These small miracles are happening every day now in Sauri, population 65,000. But the question for Mr. Sachs and his team remains: Is this progress, in development-speak, scalable? In other words, is there a way to take a place like this one and magnify the results by 1,000 times or 10,000 times and wipe out poverty across the developing world?
...

Mr. Easterly and others have criticized Mr. Sachs as not paying enough attention to bigger-picture issues like governance and corruption, which have stymied some of the best-intentioned and best-financed aid projects.

He said, “Sachs is essentially trying to create an island of success in a sea of failure, and maybe he’s done that, but it doesn’t address the sea of failure.”

For example, one can easily picture what would happen in Kenya, where corruption is essentially a national pastime, if there were a free, donor-supported fertilizer program for the entire nation. The fertilizer would very likely never reach its intended target and would disappear like the national grain reserves that were plundered during a famine in 2008, or the billions of dollars of foreign aid that have ended up in the pockets of Kenyan politicians, according to numerous reports by human rights groups and financial auditors.
Update: A lot of the more knowledgeable bloggers have mentioned that Gettleman is on the list of people whose depictions of life tend to the highly stereotypical (same list with Kristal). The line about corruption being a national pastime has drawn particular fire and ire.

Hat tip: Poverty News Blog

Monday, March 1, 2010

Poverty reduction across Africa

Pinkovskiy and Sala-i-Martin deliver the good news:
for the period 1970‐2006. We show that: (1) African poverty is falling and is falling rapidly. (2) If present trends continue, the poverty Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of people with incomes less than one dollar a day will be achieved on time. (3) The growth spurt that began in 1995 decreased African income inequality instead of increasing it. (4) African poverty reduction is remarkably general: it cannot be explained by a large country, or even by a single set of countries possessing some beneficial geographical or historical characteristic. All classes of countries, including those with disadvantageous geography and history, experience reductions in poverty. In particular, poverty fell for both landlocked as well as coastal countries; for mineral‐rich as well as mineral‐poor countries; for countries with favorable or with unfavorable agriculture; for countries regardless of colonial origin; and for countries with below‐ or above-median slave exports per capita during the African slave trade
Hat tip: a last MR for the day

Follow up Edit: Ravallion's doubts about the result.