LDS Aid in Ethiopia - 1984

I've been reading up on how The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has grown in Nigeria. In the process, I found an interesting article from the 1988 August Ensign talking about the church's efforts during the 1984 Ethiopia famine and other aid projects. In response to the famine in Ethiopia, the Church sent out a special request for the entire membership to go without food or water for 24 hours (a fast) and give the money they would have spent or more specifically to help the people in Ethiopia:

Lit in Review: Impacts of thte 2010/11 Surge in Food Prices

Ivanic, Maros, Will Martin, Hasan Zaman. (2011). “Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010-11 Surge in Food Prices.” World Bank Development Research Group, Policy Research Working Paper 5633, Apr

In the 2007/08 price increase, most of the price increase was concentrated in staple cereals. This meant the effects were concentrated on the poor who had few outside options to shift to. In the current price shock, however, food prices have increased in many more commodities and by less overall. This means there are more substitutions available and much of the hit has affected foods the poor consume less of anyway. As a result, they estimate that only 44 million more people are poor instead of the 105 million more in 07/08.

However, it appears that price transmission is higher this time than last.

Food Crises in Africa

Minot of IFPRI researched the transmission of the 2007/08 global food price crisis to African food prices in 12 countries. African food prices increased about 63%, with significant variation - much larger in Malawi, smaller in Uganda for instance. With a more concentrated set of prices, about half of the rice prices moved significantly with global food prices but most other food prices did not respond significantly over the longer term. He hypothesizes three factors that would influence this: the size of the shifts, the importance of oil prices in the crisis, and local policy factors. "In general there isn't a strong relationship between African prices and world market prices" and any connections are stronger for wheat and rice than other commodities.

The Tunisian revolution is unusual for many reasons. One is just that revolutions are unusual in Africa. A second is that it does not appear that the revolters have anyone in mind they would like to put in power; they're just kind of against whoever takes the reins at the moment. A third is that there is a wide variety of reasons given by the protestors, including responses to high food prices but that isn't the first thing being mentioned in most stories. A fourth is that Tunisia also appears to be unusual when compared with other Arab states, Cowen's principle mention being that there are significant policy areas they get right, like clean water provision.

Food prices are rising fast in Cote d'Ivoir:

In the northern city of Odienné and in Gagnoa in central Côte d’Ivoire, before the election crisis a kilogram of sugar cost the equivalent of about $1.25. It now costs $2.40; and the same goes for a litre of cooking oil. A sack of rice now costs around $35 in Odienné and the centre-north city of Korhogo; families could buy the same sack before the political crisis for around $26. In Abidjan [the capital] a kilogram of meat cost $2.80 before; now prices range between $4.40 and $5. ...

In Abidjan’s wealthier neighbourhood of Cocody, Fatim Touré [food retailer] sat waiting for clients. “Many people just turn around when I tell them the prices,” she told IRIN. “But it’s not the vendors’ fault; with this crisis, hauliers are charging more for moving vegetables into Abidjan.” She said a sack of aubergines which used to cost her $20, now cost $26.
Cooking fuel is costing families more: In Abidjan a 12-kg bottle of propane gas that went for about $9, now costs about $13. A market vendor in Gagnoa told IRIN charcoal there used to be $10 a sack; now it’s double that. ...

Higher-income families in Abidjan are able to keep extra food at home just in case of further unrest. Some said the most significant impact for now is that they feel confined to their homes. “Every week we stock up at the supermarket, just in case,” bank executive Bertrand Comoé said. “I don’t allow the children to be out after 6pm. Everyone is home by that hour; it’s like a prison. It’s stressful, but we have to do what we can to avoid the worst.”

And let's not forget the role of BLOOD CHOCOLATE in Cote d'Ivoir's current political struggles.

FAO happily announces that Niger's food production is up 60% over last year and that the livestock that survived last season's drought are now well-pastured.  The people, however, not so much. Malnutrition and food insecurity are still quite high. "FAO/WFP called for an improvement in family purchasing power in Niger by assisting pastoralists to replenish their livestock and boosting off-season agriculture such as vegetable and roots and tubers production."

The Africa News Blog is concerned that drought could seriously hamper Kenya's economic growth (6% last year), ability to provide electricity, and political stability.

Yglesias:

I think speculators get a bad rap and speculation is a stabilizing impact on commodity prices. The easiest illustration of this comes from the price of onions. Onion futures trading was banned in 1958 at the behest of then-congressman (later president) Gerald Ford who felt speculators were engaged in price manipulation. The result is that onions are one of the most unstable commodities out there:

And for a food crisis of a different kind: for authentic African cuisine in Dubai, there's just one place to go: Tribes, serving authentic African BBQ and burgers, accompanied by authentic music: Wakka Wakka.  Hoo boy.

Food price famine in Niger

After talking about the emergency food distribution in Niger and how 80% of the population is currently food insecure, we come to this choice entry:

The paradox of this year's worsening food shortage is the presence of plentiful quantities of food in many markets throughout the country. "There is a relatively good flow of food into the markets in Niger, yet prices remain extremely high," said Ferrera. "Since 2008 there has been a lot of speculation and tension in the markets. There has been good food production in neighbouring countries, yet prices are abnormally high." ...

"There is food in the markets but the purchasing power of the people is very weak," said Mahamadou Danda, Niger's prime minister. "Without assistance, the people cannot afford to buy it." ...

This isn't a boom-driven famine a la Sen -- crops largely failed because of drought and now flood -- but markets can find the food even if people can't afford it. (Hat tip: PNB, who has a series of guest blogs reporting on Niger at length)

Update: "The World Food Programme has to now pick and choose which families receive food because of a lack of money. The WFP will only give food to families that have children younger than two years old."

Four Food Aid Links

Birdsall wants the new US initiative "Feed the Future" to be put under the authority of Raj Shah, new head of USAID and argues why yet another coordinator would be a bad idea.

Aker on the upcoming famine in Niger. There are some positive signs that would make this a less serious famine than that in 2005.

Easterly outsources a definition of the G8 and G20:

…at which ministers from around the world gather to wring their hands impotently about the most fashionable issue of the day. The organisation has sought to justify its almost completely fruitless existence by joining its many fellow talking-shops in highlighting whatever crisis has recently gained most coverage in the global media.

Meanwhile, Freschi takes down US maritime propaganda to keep US food aid policies that favor it intact. Their argument? Inefficiency: it's good for the economy.

Food in Africa: Too Much and Too Little

The African Agriculture Blog warns us of two expected changes in the African food system. One is abundance and low food prices, the other is starvation and high food prices. Let's hear it for the importance of integrating African markets:

South African bumper harvest depresses Botswana cereal prices
"A three-million tonne surplus in maize from South Africa has resulted in a depression of prices" in Botswana. The prices the government uses to buy from farmers is expected to fall from P70 to P60 for a 50 kilo bag of maize, which is on the high end of what S. African farmers are receiving. Farmers who contracted with the government earlier, however, have already locked in higher prices.

Niger is on the brink of food shortages

Millions of people in Niger are at risk of running short of food, relief agencies have warned, as high prices and a lack of rain take their toll on one of the world's poorest countries. The landlocked west African nation lies at the centre of a food crisis spanning the Sahel, the arid region on the southern fringe of the Sahara.
The United Nations estimates that 7.8m people in Niger could be affected unless donors deploy some $130m (€102m, £88m) of emergency aid immediately. Parts of Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria and central Chad are also at risk. ...
Weekly admissions of malnourished children [in southern Niger] to MSF's [Doctors Without Borders'] main feeding station in Zinder doubled in the second half of April. ...
After poor rains last year, the cereal harvest was 31 per cent lower than in 2008, says the World Bank. ...
A government bulletin from mid-April found that prices for staples including millet, sorghum, maize and rice were "at an exceptionally high level", standing between 6 per cent and 17 per cent above the average of the past five years.
Compared with the same month in 2005 - when a plague of locusts contributed to food shortages - prices for millet, sorghum and maize were all higher this April, while the price of imported rice had increased by more than a third. ...
"There is enough food in the area but the prices are too high," says Johannes Schoors, Niger country director for Care, an aid agency.
During a visit to the region that included Zinder in late April, Sir John Holmes, the UN's senior emergency relief official, said that without structural changes, "it will become increasingly difficult to contain these recurrent crises, which do so much to undermine economic and social progress in the Sahel".
Sir John urged investment in irrigation and measures to prevent the encroachment of the Sahara. These steps would be more effective than periodic emergency appeals.

Governance problems are holding up aid and development flows while poor infrastructure and underdeveloped food markets and infrastructure hamper intra-regional trade in grains. (Note: the distance from Cape Town, S. Africa to Zinder, Niger is 3364 miles. That's a thousand more than from here in Ithaca, NY to my parents in Santa Barbara, CA or 100 less than the distance from here to London. It's not minor infrastructure improvements we're talking about, but it's still shorter than sending food from here to Zinder [5350 miles].)

Meanwhile, they also report that Zimbabwe's parastatal is giving 75-80% subsidies on fertilizer for winter wheat farmers. The amount farmers can buy depends on whether they sell to the parastatal marketing board or not and how large the farm is. The board is also encouraging farmers to do their banking with the board.

Big Bag o Blog Links

How to overdo reporting on South Africa's World Cup.

What would you do with $10 billion to help the poor? Mo Ibrahim says: improve developing country governments' statistical capacity.

The size of the death toll from Haiti's earthquake.

IFPRI has a new book out on the importance of scarce clean water for health, hunger, and poverty and ways to improve water management.

OXFAM warns that the rains were not good for Western Africa last year and could lead to serious food shortages, particularly for Niger.

Shifting focus for USAID.

Winning bronze makes you happier than winning silver. Why? Different reference points to the question "what if..." HT: MR

The Onion discovers the illusion of money, and in the process reaffirms my desire to find out why rational, forward-looking economists accept money. Don't they know the world will end with probability 1 in several billion years??

Parenting like an economist to overcome fear.

The Festival of Colors